Matchups

This week's games with head-to-head context and projected scores.

Opponent

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Bulldogs vs.

Size at every spot, rim finishing, ball-movement offense. BSJ can't score in half-court if Locke is smothered.

Their Edge

Locke's shooting ceiling (56% 3P) and Macdonald's rim protection (3.5 BPG).

Keys to the Game

Deny Locke catches — top-lock at the arc
Pace up to 80+ possessions
Attack Macdonald off ball screens, not in the post
Rebound discipline on their misses
Don't foul — 46% team FT

Priority Targets

Jeffrey Locke
Primary lock — Benson. Top-lock every catch; never concede a run-out. Help from the top only.
Jon Macdonald
Drag him out via ball screens (Benson pull-ups, Attila DHO slips). Don't attack the rim first look.
Jeremy Boyd
Live with his shot (29% FG). Do not help off Locke to hedge him.

ProjectionBulldogs -12. Goal: Win by 15+.

Everyone not named Harding shoots under 40%. Greene/Banker can't guard a ball-handler in space.

Their Edge

#1 rebounding team. Harding's historical-level 3P shooting (60.6%, 11 3PA/g).

Keys to the Game

Trap Harding on every ball screen — force someone else to beat us
Run in transition — their paint bigs are slow getting back
Attack Greene and Banker in space
Protect the defensive glass — Burton 10+ rebounds
Don't jack threes — avoid their style
Don't foul — 73% team FT

Priority Targets

Trevor Harding
Face-guard. Trap every ball screen. Benson primary, Plumlee on switches. If he gets 20 by late H1, go box-and-1.
Troy Banker
Attack him in PnR immediately when he's on the floor — he won't leave the paint.
Brett Greene
Sag off, box out religiously.
Hans Manseth
Force him left; apply on-ball pressure (7 TOs in a single game).

ProjectionSeason-defining game. Beat them and we're playoff-bound.

Size inside if Garrett misses. Interior scoring vs Holman 1-on-1.

Their Edge

League-best defense, no star dependency, half-court execution.

Keys to the Game

Survive Forster — hold him to 14 or fewer
Front Holman in the paint; force weaker hand
Exploit Garrett's absence if he sits
Force pace — their half-court schemes are the danger
Take care of the ball — target sub-12 TOs (vs 16 in Game 1)

Priority Targets

Nathan Forster
Benson on him. Force him left. Don't let him reach his spots.
Reid Holman
Front on post-ups. Plumlee perimeter, Burton stays in paint to cut off the roll. Plumlee closes on catch-and-shoot (only 36% 3P).
Gray Garrett
Check availability. If he plays, Plumlee on him. If he's out, attack Holman at rim.
Trey Johnson
Tag on rolls. Live with the 3 — 0/8 all season.

ProjectionRevenge game. Lost Game 1 by 7 (56-63). Coin flip when healthy.

Cracked the code in Apr 9 (76-65 win). Burton can bang with Semler for limited minutes.

Their Edge

Semler is the best post player in the league (24 PPG, 13.3 RPG).

Keys to the Game

Double Semler on every post catch — never let him get deep position
Run in transition
Wall off Niedermeyer's drive line; force pull-ups
Chase Post off the arc — 22 of 23 attempts are threes

Priority Targets

Tiger Semler
Burton primary; foul budget 3 early. Double every post catch.
Mckinnon Niedermeyer
D. O'Reilly walls off the drive. He's 0/7 from three — make him pull up.
Nathaniel Post
Chase off every catch. Never help off him.

ProjectionAlready beat them 76-65 — lean on what worked.

Size, rim pressure, and defense. Already beat them 86-75 on Apr 16.

Their Edge

Adler + Heinle can get hot from three in spurts.

Keys to the Game

Chase Adler and Heinle off every screen — no airspace
Burton 1-on-1 vs Blount; live with post-ups
Don't give Blount multiple paint touches
Foul them in 1-and-1 spots — 43% team FT

Priority Targets

Jacob Adler
Close out hard — Benson on him. Chase off every screen.
Fletcher Heinle
Plumlee. Chase off screens — 47% 3P on real volume.
James Blount
Burton 1-on-1. Limit paint touches.

ProjectionAlready beat them 86-75 on Apr 16.

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