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June 25, 2026

Los Angeles Sparks @ Toronto Tempo

Proj total 161.4Spread LA -21.8

Los Angeles Sparks (LA)

Kelsey Plum33.924.82.26.82.545.5Blended · 10 games—
Nneka Ogwumike32.817.88.62.51.462.9Blended · 12 games—
Dearica Hamby29.716.57.92.50.335.1Blended · 13 games—
Erica Wheeler28.18.11.84.61.081.2Blended · 13 games—
Ariel Atkins24.68.73.32.31.022.4Blended · 11 games—
Rae Burrell15.35.61.50.80.631.4Blended · 13 games—
Kiana Williams8.22.90.30.30.670.4Blended · 8 games—
Laura Ziegler6.40.00.60.00.000.02026-only—
Kate Martin6.22.70.30.30.590.4Blended · 7 games—
Chance Gray5.91.40.80.30.170.2Blended · 12 games—
Ta'Niya Latson3.51.50.40.30.070.9Blended · 7 games—
Jihyun Park3.00.40.30.30.000.1Blended · 8 games—
Emma Cannon2.41.20.20.20.420.0Blended · 3 games—

Toronto Tempo (TOR)

Laura Juskaite33.112.56.11.91.552.3Blended · 13 games—
Julie Allemand32.15.74.14.20.700.4Blended · 8 games—
Marina Mabrey31.820.74.14.13.411.9Blended · 12 games—
Temi Fagbenle25.22.46.52.40.000.7Blended · 2 games—
Maria Conde19.96.03.71.01.310.3Blended · 12 games—
Isabelle Harrison14.89.34.42.00.984.42026-only—
Teonni Key14.53.33.40.50.321.0Blended · 13 games—
Kia Nurse14.45.21.50.50.960.7Blended · 13 games—
Tima Pouye14.24.71.62.50.003.22026-only—
Game writeup

LA by 21.8 in a 161.4 total

Kelsey Plum is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • LA gives up left-corner 3s + above-break 3s. Los Angeles Sparks shows positive make z-scores in left-corner 3s (+1.38), above-break 3s (+0.96). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • LA suppresses right-corner 3s. Los Angeles Sparks is a negative matchup for right-corner 3s (-1.12). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.
  • TOR gives up right-corner 3s + rim makes. Toronto Tempo shows positive make z-scores in right-corner 3s (+2.27), rim makes (+1.90). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • TOR suppresses mid-range makes. Toronto Tempo is a negative matchup for mid-range makes (-1.16). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 161.4, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.
  • Side posture. LA grades as the model side by 21.8. Team totals: LA 91.6 and TOR 69.8.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (4)

LA

  • Cameron Brink

TOR

  • Brittney Sykes
  • Nyara Sabally
  • Kiki Rice
Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.