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June 23, 2026

New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces

Proj total 178.1Spread NY -4.5

New York Liberty (NY)

Breanna Stewart33.220.89.02.90.575.4Blended · 14 games—
Sabrina Ionescu29.816.23.85.72.353.1Blended · 2 games—
Jonquel Jones28.814.19.42.71.652.4Blended · 13 games—
Leonie Fiebich28.37.52.91.61.251.3Blended · 6 games—
Pauline Astier25.411.63.43.70.872.2Blended · 14 games—
Marine Johannes10.95.41.21.41.350.2Blended · 14 games—
Satou Sabally9.46.11.80.60.841.3Blended · 8 games—
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton7.52.70.80.80.340.6Blended · 10 games—
Rebecca Allen6.91.20.90.40.240.2Blended · 5 games—
Rebekah Gardner6.02.20.90.50.160.5Blended · 14 games—
Han Xu5.72.31.00.40.280.1Blended · 14 games—
Anneli Maley3.80.80.80.10.050.5Blended · 5 games—
Marine Fauthoux2.40.00.30.30.000.02026-only—
Raquel Carrera1.90.40.40.20.040.0Blended · 4 games—

Las Vegas Aces (LV)

Chelsea Gray35.014.04.37.32.582.3Blended · 13 games—
A'ja Wilson34.828.79.93.51.476.9Blended · 13 games—
Jackie Young34.116.74.96.91.883.1Blended · 13 games—
NaLyssa Smith25.612.07.71.00.122.5Blended · 13 games—
Stephanie Talbot24.05.34.42.30.780.8Blended · 13 games—
Jewell Loyd18.04.72.01.00.870.9Blended · 11 games—
Kierstan Bell12.61.11.70.70.260.0Blended · 9 games—
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus9.23.62.40.60.071.0Blended · 10 games—
Brianna Turner6.70.71.30.20.000.1Blended · 12 games—
Game writeup

NY by 4.5 in a 178.1 total

A'ja Wilson is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • NY gives up left-corner 3s + right-corner 3s. New York Liberty shows positive make z-scores in left-corner 3s (+1.19), right-corner 3s (+1.09). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • LV gives up pick-and-roll makes + above-break 3s. Las Vegas Aces shows positive make z-scores in pick-and-roll makes (+2.69), above-break 3s (+1.08). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • LV suppresses right-corner 3s. Las Vegas Aces is a negative matchup for right-corner 3s (-1.12). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 178.1, a pace/efficiency setup that starts as an over-screen before prices are considered.
  • Side posture. NY grades as the model side by 4.5. Team totals: NY 91.3 and LV 86.8.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (3)

NY

None reported.

LV

  • Chennedy Carter
  • Dana Evans
  • Janiah Barker
Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.