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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
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June 14, 2026

Washington Mystics @ New York Liberty

Proj total 160.7Spread NY -9.3

Washington Mystics (WSH)

Sonia Citron34.116.63.03.61.303.1Blended · 10 games—
Shakira Austin28.915.48.42.90.394.1Blended · 10 games—
Georgia Amoore24.66.81.33.61.441.6Blended · 11 games—
Michaela Onyenwere24.08.72.61.51.111.5Blended · 6 games—
Cotie McMahon24.08.02.82.00.712.8Blended · 9 games—
Alicia Florez14.03.51.32.00.151.52026-only—
Lauren Betts13.15.42.50.50.001.5Blended · 11 games—
Cassandre Prosper13.02.71.30.50.190.4Blended · 11 games—
Angela Dugalic12.94.84.10.90.410.7Blended · 11 games—
Lucy Olsen7.63.20.71.30.270.9Blended · 6 games—
Rori Harmon3.80.60.40.60.050.3Blended · 8 games—

New York Liberty (NY)

Breanna Stewart33.319.59.02.90.597.7Blended · 14 games—
Jonquel Jones28.813.39.42.71.653.4Blended · 13 games—
Leonie Fiebich28.37.22.91.61.291.8Blended · 6 games—
Pauline Astier25.411.13.43.70.873.1Blended · 14 games—
Marine Johannes24.211.82.63.03.060.6Blended · 14 games—
Satou Sabally14.08.82.60.91.252.7Blended · 8 games—
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton11.34.31.21.20.551.3Blended · 10 games—
Rebecca Allen10.41.81.30.60.360.4Blended · 5 games—
Rebekah Gardner9.13.21.40.80.261.1Blended · 14 games—
Han Xu8.73.41.60.60.420.1Blended · 14 games—
Marine Fauthoux3.60.00.50.50.000.02026-only—
Raquel Carrera2.90.60.60.30.060.0Blended · 4 games—
Game writeup

NY by 9.3 in a 160.7 total

Breanna Stewart is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • WSH gives up mid-range makes + above-break 3s. Washington Mystics shows positive make z-scores in mid-range makes (+1.08), above-break 3s (+0.96). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • WSH suppresses rim makes. Washington Mystics is a negative matchup for rim makes (-1.56). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.
  • NY gives up left-corner 3s + right-corner 3s. New York Liberty shows positive make z-scores in left-corner 3s (+1.19), right-corner 3s (+1.09). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 160.7, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.
  • Side posture. NY grades as the model side by 9.3. Team totals: WSH 75.7 and NY 85.0.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (4)

WSH

  • Kiki Iriafen
  • Darianna Littlepage-Buggs

NY

  • Sabrina Ionescu
  • Anneli Maley
Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.