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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
© 2026 Nothing But Bet
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June 13, 2026

Dallas Wings @ Portland Fire

Proj total 178.8Spread DAL -4.2

Dallas Wings (DAL)

Paige Bueckers32.819.73.86.22.024.2Blended · 13 games—
Azzi Fudd31.113.51.41.51.941.1Blended · 12 games—
Arike Ogunbowale30.914.83.13.22.053.7Blended · 12 games—
Jessica Shepard30.613.910.75.50.003.8Blended · 13 games—
Maddy Siegrist24.010.05.41.20.922.0Blended · 13 games—
Awak Kuier11.35.52.40.70.691.5Blended · 9 games—
Alanna Smith9.92.32.21.00.180.5Blended · 12 games—
Aziaha James9.15.11.81.00.500.7Blended · 13 games—
JJ Quinerly8.03.21.31.60.340.7Blended · 3 games—
Li Yueru4.81.31.50.20.080.5Blended · 9 games—
Alysha Clark4.51.00.60.20.190.2Blended · 11 games—
Costanza Verona3.01.20.00.60.000.02026-only—

Portland Fire (POR)

Bridget Carleton28.612.33.21.82.120.9Blended · 14 games—
Sarah Ashlee Barker27.312.35.02.91.573.3Blended · 14 games—
Carla Leite24.015.51.95.10.585.9Blended · 13 games—
Megan Gustafson24.014.24.50.61.033.2Blended · 14 gamesPTS O 11.5
Emily Engstler24.09.54.91.11.083.2Blended · 14 games—
Luisa Geiselsoder10.82.91.70.80.360.3Blended · 15 games—
Teja Oblak10.14.11.02.70.520.0Blended · 8 games—
Jordan Harrison9.54.51.02.60.002.6Blended · 2 games—
Karlie Samuelson9.01.90.90.70.290.0Blended · 7 games—
Frieda Buhner8.82.80.90.20.201.6Blended · 12 games—
Nyadiew Puoch8.82.00.80.40.180.7Blended · 15 games—
Holly Winterburn7.62.50.91.50.001.6Blended · 7 games—
Serah Williams7.52.82.00.30.052.9Blended · 11 games—
Game writeup

DAL by 4.2 in a 178.8 total

Paige Bueckers is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • DAL gives up free-throw volume + rim makes. Dallas Wings shows positive make z-scores in free-throw volume (+1.93), rim makes (+1.29). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • DAL suppresses mid-range makes. Dallas Wings is a negative matchup for mid-range makes (-1.51). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.
  • POR gives up right-corner 3s + left-corner 3s. Portland Fire shows positive make z-scores in right-corner 3s (+1.68), left-corner 3s (+0.80). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 178.8, a pace/efficiency setup that starts as an over-screen before prices are considered.
  • Side posture. DAL grades as the model side by 4.2. Team totals: DAL 91.5 and POR 87.3.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (1)

DAL

  • Odyssey Sims

POR

None reported.

Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.