Skip to content
NBBNothing But BetWNBA projections
MACMACWNBAWNBAPropsPROPResultsRESMLBMLB
MACWNBAPropsResultsMLB
NOTHING BUT BET
MAC scouting/WNBA model/Betting card/MLB props
Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
© 2026 Nothing But Bet
← All matchups
June 11, 2026

Phoenix Mercury @ Dallas Wings

Proj total 176.3Spread DAL -9.7

Phoenix Mercury (PHX)

Alyssa Thomas32.316.17.17.70.007.1Blended · 13 games—
Kahleah Copper29.415.92.61.71.095.4Blended · 13 games—
DeWanna Bonner29.010.55.31.30.795.1Blended · 14 games—
Monique Akoa Makani27.511.32.62.91.412.0Blended · 7 games—
Natasha Mack25.210.08.01.40.143.2Blended · 14 games—
Noemie Brochant12.93.21.50.70.540.2Blended · 14 games—
Jovana Nogic10.35.50.60.90.992.7Blended · 14 games—
Lexi Held9.42.70.90.80.450.7Blended · 14 games—
Kiana Williams6.72.40.20.30.550.5Blended · 8 games—
Kyara Linskens6.22.41.40.30.291.3Blended · 10 games—
Marta Suarez5.11.70.70.20.550.0Blended · 3 games—
Valeriane Ayayi3.91.10.90.50.101.1Blended · 9 games—
Quionche Carter2.10.50.30.20.000.0Blended · 7 games—

Dallas Wings (DAL)

Paige Bueckers32.820.43.86.22.184.5Blended · 13 games—
Azzi Fudd31.114.01.41.52.081.2Blended · 12 games—
Arike Ogunbowale30.915.33.13.22.204.1Blended · 12 games—
Jessica Shepard30.613.310.75.50.004.1Blended · 13 games—
Maddy Siegrist24.010.15.41.20.962.2Blended · 13 games—
Awak Kuier11.35.52.40.70.771.6Blended · 9 games—
Alanna Smith9.92.32.21.00.200.6Blended · 12 games—
Aziaha James9.15.11.81.00.490.8Blended · 13 games—
JJ Quinerly8.03.31.31.60.400.7Blended · 3 games—
Li Yueru4.81.31.50.20.090.5Blended · 9 games—
Alysha Clark4.51.20.60.20.210.3Blended · 11 games—
Costanza Verona3.01.20.00.60.000.02026-only—
Game writeup

DAL by 9.7 in a 176.3 total

Paige Bueckers is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • PHX gives up above-break 3s + mid-range makes. Phoenix Mercury shows positive make z-scores in above-break 3s (+1.36), mid-range makes (+0.64). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • PHX suppresses rim makes. Phoenix Mercury is a negative matchup for rim makes (-0.76). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.
  • DAL gives up free-throw volume + rim makes. Dallas Wings shows positive make z-scores in free-throw volume (+1.93), rim makes (+1.29). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • DAL suppresses mid-range makes. Dallas Wings is a negative matchup for mid-range makes (-1.51). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 176.3, a pace/efficiency setup that starts as an over-screen before prices are considered.
  • Side posture. DAL grades as the model side by 9.7. Team totals: PHX 83.3 and DAL 93.0.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (2)

PHX

  • Sami Whitcomb

DAL

  • Odyssey Sims
Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.