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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
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June 6, 2026

Indiana Fever @ New York Liberty

Proj total 182.5Spread IND -11.5

Indiana Fever (IND)

Kelsey Mitchell31.321.81.12.62.223.7Blended · 9 games—
Caitlin Clark28.320.13.97.92.813.0Blended · 8 games—
Aliyah Boston26.616.77.93.60.942.5Blended · 8 games—
Sophie Cunningham26.110.62.92.21.441.4Blended · 9 games—
Lexie Hull24.07.04.41.11.400.6Blended · 8 games—
Monique Billings14.64.63.60.90.321.4Blended · 8 games—
Makayla Timpson10.33.22.60.40.000.5Blended · 9 games—
Myisha Hines-Allen10.32.91.91.50.050.9Blended · 9 games—
Raven Johnson9.03.31.80.80.370.5Blended · 9 games—
Tyasha Harris8.41.80.71.20.170.3Blended · 8 games—
Damiris Dantas5.72.90.90.40.700.2Blended · 5 games—
Grace VanSlooten5.42.10.60.30.270.7Blended · 6 games—

New York Liberty (NY)

Breanna Stewart31.618.48.52.40.488.2Blended · 10 games—
Jonquel Jones30.414.48.82.61.374.0Blended · 10 games—
Leonie Fiebich28.88.20.90.90.982.1Blended · 2 games—
Pauline Astier28.013.23.73.90.853.8Blended · 10 games—
Marine Johannes25.011.02.73.82.930.7Blended · 10 games—
Satou Sabally10.95.81.81.00.572.4Blended · 4 games—
Rebekah Gardner10.54.21.40.70.261.4Blended · 10 games—
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton10.44.31.01.10.561.3Blended · 6 games—
Rebecca Allen9.21.41.10.50.240.4Blended · 5 games—
Han Xu8.83.41.40.40.410.2Blended · 10 games—
Anneli Maley5.11.11.10.10.071.0Blended · 5 games—
Aubrey Griffin0.70.10.10.00.000.0Blended · 4 games—
Raquel Carrera0.60.00.00.30.000.0Blended · 2 games—
Game writeup

IND by 11.5 in a 182.5 total

Kelsey Mitchell is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • IND gives up rim makes + free-throw volume. Indiana Fever shows positive make z-scores in rim makes (+1.13), free-throw volume (+0.69). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • IND suppresses above-break 3s. Indiana Fever is a negative matchup for above-break 3s (-1.04). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.
  • NY gives up left-corner 3s + right-corner 3s. New York Liberty shows positive make z-scores in left-corner 3s (+1.19), right-corner 3s (+1.09). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 182.5, a pace/efficiency setup that starts as an over-screen before prices are considered.
  • Side posture. IND grades as the model side by 11.5. Team totals: IND 97.0 and NY 85.5.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (4)

IND

  • Justine Pissott
  • Bree Hall

NY

  • Sabrina Ionescu
  • Marine Fauthoux
Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.