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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
© 2026 Nothing But Bet
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June 5, 2026

Connecticut Sun @ Chicago Sky

Proj total 159.4Spread CON -2.0

Connecticut Sun (CON)

Aneesah Morrow28.014.511.61.31.193.9Blended · 12 games—
Saniya Rivers26.86.92.13.90.271.6Blended · 12 games—
Leila Lacan26.29.92.14.30.641.9Blended · 2 games—
Brittney Griner24.613.44.51.80.253.0Blended · 6 games—
Aaliyah Edwards24.011.85.01.10.004.5Blended · 6 games—
Diamond Miller12.34.91.40.60.432.3Blended · 12 games—
Kennedy Burke10.43.01.60.90.370.8Blended · 12 games—
Charlisse Leger-Walker9.83.00.71.20.340.8Blended · 12 games—
Olivia Nelson-Ododa8.93.61.61.20.001.4Blended · 8 games—
Hailey Van Lith7.73.30.51.00.390.3Blended · 9 games—
Ashlon Jackson6.71.40.60.60.290.4Blended · 4 games—
Raegan Beers5.81.91.60.40.080.7Blended · 10 games—
Nell Angloma4.91.80.60.10.060.9Blended · 8 games—
Gianna Kneepkens3.91.30.60.20.120.2Blended · 12 games—

Chicago Sky (CHI)

Skylar Diggins30.914.94.35.21.096.4Blended · 8 games—
Natasha Cloud28.79.94.14.30.752.4Blended · 8 games—
Kamilla Cardoso28.114.310.52.50.005.0Blended · 9 games—
Jacy Sheldon26.38.21.62.01.001.4Blended · 9 games—
Azura Stevens24.09.03.23.20.352.8Blended · 4 games—
Elizabeth Williams16.54.54.71.20.002.2Blended · 9 games—
Sydney Taylor14.59.81.11.41.175.1Blended · 7 games—
Rachel Banham14.04.60.80.91.001.1Blended · 9 games—
Aicha Coulibaly11.43.51.50.50.001.7Blended · 6 games—
Saylor Poffenbarger5.60.01.30.00.000.02026-only—
Game writeup

CON by 2.0 in a 159.4 total

Skylar Diggins is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • CON gives up free-throw volume + above-break 3s. Connecticut Sun shows positive make z-scores in free-throw volume (+1.56), above-break 3s (+0.86). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • CON suppresses pick-and-roll makes. Connecticut Sun is a negative matchup for pick-and-roll makes (-0.87). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.
  • CHI gives up mid-range makes + free-throw volume. Chicago Sky shows positive make z-scores in mid-range makes (+1.31), free-throw volume (+0.48). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • CHI suppresses pick-and-roll makes. Chicago Sky is a negative matchup for pick-and-roll makes (-1.63). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 159.4, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.
  • Side posture. CON grades as the model side by 2.0. Team totals: CON 80.7 and CHI 78.7.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (5)

CON

None reported.

CHI

  • DiJonai Carrington
  • Maddy Westbeld
  • Rickea Jackson
  • Gabriela Jaquez
  • Courtney Vandersloot
Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.