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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
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June 3, 2026

Toronto Tempo @ New York Liberty

Proj total 177.4Spread TOR -4.0

Toronto Tempo (TOR)

Brittney Sykes32.219.73.83.91.325.0Blended · 10 games—
Kiki Rice29.714.14.92.91.193.3Blended · 10 games—
Marina Mabrey29.019.94.23.83.302.1Blended · 9 games—
Nyara Sabally24.111.05.01.60.501.7Blended · 7 games—
Laura Juskaite24.08.44.41.41.252.0Blended · 10 games—
Maria Conde17.15.42.90.71.230.4Blended · 9 games—
Julie Allemand14.02.32.02.10.370.3Blended · 5 games—
Kia Nurse8.83.40.90.40.630.5Blended · 10 games—
Teonni Key7.61.91.70.20.190.6Blended · 10 games—
Nikolina Milic7.02.11.10.30.000.3Blended · 6 games—
Mariella Fasoula3.61.10.70.20.000.0Blended · 3 games—
Tima Pouye2.91.40.00.00.001.42026-only—

New York Liberty (NY)

Breanna Stewart31.618.38.52.40.506.8Blended · 10 games—
Jonquel Jones30.414.48.82.61.393.3Blended · 10 games—
Leonie Fiebich28.88.90.90.91.191.7Blended · 2 games—
Pauline Astier28.013.43.73.90.873.2Blended · 10 games—
Marine Johannes25.011.52.73.83.090.6Blended · 10 games—
Satou Sabally10.95.61.81.00.571.9Blended · 4 gamesPTS U 11.5
Rebekah Gardner10.54.31.40.70.281.2Blended · 10 games—
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton10.44.41.01.10.601.1Blended · 6 games—
Rebecca Allen9.21.31.10.50.240.4Blended · 5 games—
Han Xu8.83.41.40.40.410.2Blended · 10 games—
Anneli Maley5.11.11.10.10.070.8Blended · 5 games—
Aubrey Griffin0.70.10.10.00.000.0Blended · 4 games—
Raquel Carrera0.60.00.00.30.000.0Blended · 2 games—
Game writeup

TOR by 4.0 in a 177.4 total

Marina Mabrey is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • TOR gives up right-corner 3s + rim makes. Toronto Tempo shows positive make z-scores in right-corner 3s (+2.27), rim makes (+1.90). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • TOR suppresses mid-range makes. Toronto Tempo is a negative matchup for mid-range makes (-1.16). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.
  • NY gives up left-corner 3s + right-corner 3s. New York Liberty shows positive make z-scores in left-corner 3s (+1.19), right-corner 3s (+1.09). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 177.4, a pace/efficiency setup that starts as an over-screen before prices are considered.
  • Side posture. TOR grades as the model side by 4.0. Team totals: TOR 90.7 and NY 86.7.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (4)

TOR

  • Isabelle Harrison
  • Temi Fagbenle

NY

  • Sabrina Ionescu
  • Marine Fauthoux
Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.