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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
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May 29, 2026

Phoenix Mercury @ New York Liberty

Proj total 175.6Spread NY -2.0

Phoenix Mercury (PHX)

Alyssa Thomas32.316.27.57.60.003.8Blended · 7 games—
Kahleah Copper30.117.02.32.11.703.0Blended · 7 games—
DeWanna Bonner25.89.75.31.31.092.4Blended · 7 games—
Jovana Nogic25.114.71.02.02.864.12026-only—
Natasha Mack24.99.78.41.60.142.02026-only—
Noemie Brochant14.03.32.00.50.540.12026-only—
Kiana Williams13.34.80.40.61.080.72026-only—
Valeriane Ayayi11.24.02.71.10.482.12026-only—
Marta Suarez9.02.91.90.00.950.02026-only—
Kyara Linskens8.63.82.10.50.481.12026-only—
Sha Carter5.70.70.70.30.000.02026-only—

New York Liberty (NY)

Breanna Stewart32.018.89.22.70.527.4Blended · 7 games—
Jonquel Jones28.914.07.62.21.583.5Blended · 7 games—
Marine Johannes28.19.73.24.12.320.7Blended · 7 games—
Pauline Astier25.513.83.13.41.043.42026-only—
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton24.08.32.32.31.012.52026-only—
Leonie Fiebich12.63.72.31.20.580.82025_baseline—
Rebekah Gardner9.74.11.60.80.331.22026-only—
Satou Sabally9.35.51.30.90.621.8Blended · 2 games—
Sabrina Ionescu9.34.91.21.80.551.4Blended · 2 games—
Rebecca Allen8.32.21.10.80.430.3Blended · 2 games—
Han Xu6.32.00.80.30.330.12026-only—
Anneli Maley4.71.61.30.10.120.92026-only—
Aubrey Griffin0.80.20.10.00.000.02026-only—
Raquel Carrera0.50.00.00.50.000.02026-only—
Game writeup

NY by 2.0 in a 175.6 total

Breanna Stewart is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • PHX gives up right-corner 3s. Phoenix Mercury shows positive make z-scores in right-corner 3s (+0.59). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • PHX suppresses left-corner 3s. Phoenix Mercury is a negative matchup for left-corner 3s (-0.98). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 175.6, a pace/efficiency setup that starts as an over-screen before prices are considered.
  • Side posture. NY grades as the model side by 2.0. Team totals: PHX 86.8 and NY 88.8.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (4)

PHX

  • Shay Ciezki
  • Monique Akoa Makani
  • Sami Whitcomb

NY

  • Marine Fauthoux
Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.