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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
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May 28, 2026

Las Vegas Aces @ Dallas Wings

Proj total 185.7Spread LV -7.5

Las Vegas Aces (LV)

Chelsea Gray30.212.73.96.72.003.6Blended · 7 games—
A'ja Wilson30.026.07.32.60.9611.0Blended · 7 games—
Jackie Young29.315.84.35.51.684.9Blended · 7 games—
Jewell Loyd28.011.33.21.52.312.5Blended · 7 games—
NaLyssa Smith24.110.96.61.20.234.3Blended · 7 games—
Chennedy Carter14.111.81.61.40.662.62026-only—
Stephanie Talbot14.12.91.91.00.110.62026-only—
Kierstan Bell11.41.01.50.70.210.02026-only—
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus9.53.42.40.60.001.32026-only—
Brianna Turner9.30.82.00.30.000.32026-only—
Janiah Barker——————no_baseline—

Dallas Wings (DAL)

Arike Ogunbowale32.715.52.23.11.663.0Blended · 7 games—
Paige Bueckers32.520.13.25.71.303.1Blended · 8 games—
Azzi Fudd23.411.11.01.11.570.92026-only—
Jessica Shepard21.07.66.84.00.002.0Blended · 8 games—
Odyssey Sims20.07.60.63.20.611.2Blended · 8 games—
Maddy Siegrist12.26.02.00.70.390.7Blended · 8 games—
Alanna Smith12.13.62.81.30.420.5Blended · 8 games—
Aziaha James10.35.22.30.90.540.7Blended · 8 games—
JJ Quinerly10.34.32.82.80.380.7Blended · 1 game—
Li Yueru8.72.62.90.60.240.6Blended · 6 games—
Awak Kuier8.54.01.90.70.481.12026-only—
Alysha Clark5.61.50.90.10.220.32026-only—
Costanza Verona2.70.00.00.00.000.02026-only—
Game writeup

LV by 7.5 in a 185.7 total

A'ja Wilson is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • LV gives up pick-and-roll makes + mid-range makes. Las Vegas Aces shows positive make z-scores in pick-and-roll makes (+2.69), mid-range makes (+1.07). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • LV suppresses left-corner 3s. Las Vegas Aces is a negative matchup for left-corner 3s (-1.35). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.
  • DAL gives up free-throw volume + left-corner 3s. Dallas Wings shows positive make z-scores in free-throw volume (+1.93), left-corner 3s (+1.57). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • DAL suppresses mid-range makes. Dallas Wings is a negative matchup for mid-range makes (-0.93). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 185.7, a pace/efficiency setup that starts as an over-screen before prices are considered.
  • Side posture. LV grades as the model side by 7.5. Team totals: LV 96.6 and DAL 89.1.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (2)

LV

  • Dana Evans

DAL

  • Dulcy Fankam Mendjiadeu
Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.