Skip to content
NBBNothing But BetWNBA projections
MACMACWNBAWNBAPropsPROPResultsRESMLBMLB
MACWNBAPropsResultsMLB
NOTHING BUT BET
MAC scouting/WNBA model/Betting card/MLB props
Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
© 2026 Nothing But Bet
← All matchups
May 27, 2026

Connecticut Sun @ Portland Fire

Proj total 155.4Spread CON -1.6

Connecticut Sun (CON)

Aneesah Morrow28.912.611.51.10.853.5Blended · 8 games—
Saniya Rivers25.27.72.44.60.701.4Blended · 8 games—
Brittney Griner24.012.54.91.60.282.5Blended · 4 games—
Hailey Van Lith24.011.71.23.51.540.82026-only—
Charlisse Leger-Walker24.07.51.82.70.851.72026-only—
Kennedy Burke15.85.32.41.90.801.1Blended · 8 games—
Diamond Miller11.85.11.60.50.531.82026-only—
Aaliyah Edwards11.44.72.20.70.001.8Blended · 4 games—
Nell Angloma9.94.11.80.30.001.62026-only—
Raegan Beers9.63.52.20.60.191.12026-only—
Ashlon Jackson7.91.30.70.30.000.02026-only—
Gianna Kneepkens7.52.51.30.40.250.32026-only—

Portland Fire (POR)

Bridget Carleton28.110.22.51.81.980.8Blended · 7 games—
Carla Leite24.012.82.54.70.485.5Blended · 5 games—
Emily Engstler24.010.03.70.91.402.12026-only—
Luisa Geiselsoder24.07.34.71.60.990.6Blended · 7 games—
Nyadiew Puoch24.06.82.31.10.911.12026-only—
Sarah Ashlee Barker15.27.52.71.20.851.32026-only—
Teja Oblak12.32.20.76.50.720.02026-only—
Megan Gustafson10.76.22.00.20.481.12026-only—
Jordan Harrison10.54.71.12.90.001.82026-only—
Frieda Buhner10.02.31.20.10.141.22026-only—
Serah Williams8.93.62.70.40.002.02026-only—
Holly Winterburn8.33.30.91.30.001.12026-only—
Karlie Samuelson——————no_baseline—
Game writeup

CON by 1.6 in a 155.4 total

Carla Leite is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Matchup levers

  • CON gives up free-throw volume + rim makes. Connecticut Sun shows positive make z-scores in free-throw volume (+1.56), rim makes (+1.42). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.
  • CON suppresses mid-range makes. Connecticut Sun is a negative matchup for mid-range makes (-1.85). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 155.4, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.
  • Side posture. CON grades as the model side by 1.6. Team totals: CON 78.5 and POR 76.9.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (2)

CON

  • Olivia Nelson-Ododa
  • Leila Lacan

POR

None reported.

Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.