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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
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May 25, 2026

Portland Fire @ New York Liberty

Proj total 166.1Spread NY -14.7

Portland Fire (POR)

Bridget Carleton28.110.02.51.81.940.5Blended · 7 gamesPTS U 14.5
Carla Leite24.011.92.54.70.473.2Blended · 5 gamesPTS U 15.5
Emily Engstler24.010.03.70.91.402.12026-only—
Luisa Geiselsoder24.07.24.71.60.960.4Blended · 7 games—
Nyadiew Puoch24.06.82.31.10.911.12026-only—
Sarah Ashlee Barker15.27.52.71.20.851.32026-only—
Teja Oblak12.32.20.76.50.720.02026-only—
Megan Gustafson10.76.22.00.20.481.12026-only—
Jordan Harrison10.54.71.12.90.001.82026-only—
Frieda Buhner10.02.31.20.10.141.22026-only—
Serah Williams8.93.62.70.40.002.02026-only—
Holly Winterburn8.33.30.91.30.001.12026-only—
Karlie Samuelson——————no_baseline—

New York Liberty (NY)

Breanna Stewart32.019.19.22.70.546.8Blended · 7 games—
Jonquel Jones28.914.57.62.21.663.2Blended · 7 games—
Marine Johannes28.110.03.24.12.410.7Blended · 7 games—
Pauline Astier25.513.83.13.41.043.42026-only—
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton24.08.32.32.31.012.52026-only—
Leonie Fiebich12.63.92.31.20.620.72025_baseline—
Rebekah Gardner9.74.11.60.80.331.22026-only—
Satou Sabally9.35.61.30.90.661.7Blended · 2 gamesPTS U 13.5REB U 4.5
Sabrina Ionescu9.35.01.21.80.581.2Blended · 2 gamesPTS U 16.5AST U 5.5REB U 4.5
Rebecca Allen8.32.31.10.80.450.3Blended · 2 games—
Han Xu6.32.00.80.30.330.12026-only—
Anneli Maley4.71.61.30.10.120.92026-only—
Aubrey Griffin0.80.20.10.00.000.02026-only—
Raquel Carrera0.50.00.00.50.000.02026-only—
Game writeup

NY by 14.7 in a 166.1 total

Breanna Stewart is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Game script

  • Total posture. The projection lands at 166.1, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.
  • Side posture. NY grades as the model side by 14.7. Team totals: POR 75.7 and NY 90.4.

Watch list

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.
Inactives (1)

POR

None reported.

NY

  • Marine Fauthoux
Methodology / caveats

Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.