May 17, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Las Vegas Aces @ Atlanta Dream

Sunday, May 17 at 1:30 PM EDT

Total164.9

SpreadATL -0.7

LV82.1

ATL82.8

Out: Brionna Jones (ATL), Dana Evans (LV)

ATL by 0.7 in a 164.9 total

A'ja Wilson is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Projected box scoreZone defenseRole volatility

Projected total164.9

Model spreadATL -0.7

A'ja Wilson PTS21.0

Rhyne Howard 3PM2.28

Angel Reese REB12.4

Method note: Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.

A'ja Wilson points watch

PTS21.0 pts

High model volume

A'ja Wilson owns the top scoring projection in this game at 21.0 points over 29.5 minutes.
Do not treat this as a bet without a live line; use it as the first prop to compare against books.

Rhyne Howard 3PM watch

3PM2.28 3PM

Model watch

Rhyne Howard has the highest made-three projection in the matchup.
This becomes actionable only if the live line leaves room below the projection.

Angel Reese rebounds watch

REB12.4 reb

Board-volume edge

Angel Reese leads the game in projected rebounds.
Check lineup news first; early-season frontcourt roles are still volatile.

Chelsea Gray assists watch

AST6.2 ast

Usage check

Chelsea Gray has the clearest playmaking projection in the game.
Assist lines are role-sensitive; verify starting guards and ball-handler usage before playing it.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

LV gives up pick-and-roll makes + mid-range makes

Las Vegas Aces shows positive make z-scores in pick-and-roll makes (+2.69), mid-range makes (+1.07). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

LV suppresses left-corner 3s

Las Vegas Aces is a negative matchup for left-corner 3s (-1.35). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

ATL gives up mid-range makes

Atlanta Dream shows positive make z-scores in mid-range makes (+1.77). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

ATL suppresses above-break 3s

Atlanta Dream is a negative matchup for above-break 3s (-1.52). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

The projection lands at 164.9, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.

Side posture

ATL grades as the model side by 0.7. Team totals: LV 82.1 and ATL 82.8.

Watch List

Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.

Las Vegas Aces (LV)

200.0 min · 82.1 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
A'ja Wilson	C	29.5	21.0	5.0	3.1	0.49	4.1	blended · 3G
Jackie Young	G	29.4	14.7	4.0	5.4	1.32	1.9	blended · 3G
Chennedy Carter	G	15.4	10.4	0.8	1.1	0.25	1.9	2026 only · 3G
Chelsea Gray	G	29.4	10.0	2.3	6.2	1.29	1.3	blended · 3G
NaLyssa Smith	F	21.1	8.3	5.4	1.0	0.08	1.4	blended · 3G
Jewell Loyd	G	27.6	7.8	3.9	1.8	1.04	0.9	blended · 3G
Stephanie Talbot	F	15.8	5.1	1.4	1.1	0.25	0.8	2026 only · 3G
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus	F	7.3	2.3	2.5	0.6	0.00	1.1	2026 only · 3G
Kierstan Bell	F	12.7	1.4	1.7	0.8	0.25	0.0	2026 only · 3G
Brianna Turner	F	11.8	1.1	2.8	0.3	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 3G
Team total		200.0	82.1	29.8	21.4	5.0	13.4

No 2025 baseline available: Janiah Barker

Atlanta Dream (ATL)

200.0 min · 82.8 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Allisha Gray	G	31.9	16.4	6.7	2.2	1.55	3.8	blended · 2G
Rhyne Howard	G	32.9	14.4	3.9	5.2	2.28	2.6	blended · 2G
Angel Reese	F	29.6	12.8	12.4	1.4	0.08	4.1	blended · 2G
Jordin Canada	G	26.0	10.2	1.4	5.1	0.83	2.4	blended · 2G
Holly Winterburn	G	14.5	7.9	1.3	1.3	0.00	2.6	2026 only · 1G
Naz Hillmon	F	24.7	7.2	4.6	1.7	0.98	1.0	blended · 2G
Madina Okot	C	10.2	5.6	3.3	0.3	0.33	2.0	2026 only · 2G
Te-Hina Paopao	G	10.8	3.7	2.5	1.4	0.63	0.1	blended · 2G
Indya Nivar	G	9.2	2.6	1.3	0.0	0.00	1.3	2026 only · 1G
Sika Kone	F	4.6	1.3	0.7	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Isobel Borlase	G	5.6	0.7	0.3	0.7	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Team total		200.0	82.8	38.4	19.3	6.7	19.9

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone

Team	RA	PNR	MR	ATB3	LC3	RC3	FTA
LV	-0.88	+2.69	+1.07	-0.74	-1.35	-0.95	-0.81
ATL	+0.11	+0.09	+1.77	-1.52	-0.98	-0.76	-1.33

Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

A'ja Wilson

29.5

21.0

5.0

3.1

0.49

4.1

blended · 3G

Jackie Young

29.4

14.7

4.0

5.4

1.32

1.9

blended · 3G

Chennedy Carter

15.4

10.4

0.8

1.1

0.25

1.9

2026 only · 3G

Chelsea Gray

29.4

10.0

2.3

6.2

1.29

1.3

blended · 3G

NaLyssa Smith

21.1

8.3

5.4

1.0

0.08

1.4

blended · 3G

Jewell Loyd

27.6

7.8

3.9

1.8

1.04

0.9

blended · 3G

Stephanie Talbot

15.8

5.1

1.4

1.1

0.25

0.8

2026 only · 3G

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus

7.3

2.3

2.5

0.6

0.00

1.1

2026 only · 3G

Kierstan Bell

12.7

1.4

1.7

0.8

0.25

0.0

2026 only · 3G

Brianna Turner

11.8

1.1

2.8

0.3

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 3G

Team total

200.0

82.1

29.8

21.4

5.0

13.4

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Allisha Gray

31.9

16.4

6.7

2.2

1.55

3.8

blended · 2G

Rhyne Howard

32.9

14.4

3.9

5.2

2.28

2.6

blended · 2G

Angel Reese

29.6

12.8

12.4

1.4

0.08

4.1

blended · 2G

Jordin Canada

26.0

10.2

1.4

5.1

0.83

2.4

blended · 2G

Holly Winterburn

14.5

7.9

1.3

0.00

2.6

2026 only · 1G

Naz Hillmon

24.7

7.2

4.6

1.7

0.98

1.0

blended · 2G

Madina Okot

10.2

5.6

3.3

0.3

0.33

2.0

2026 only · 2G

Te-Hina Paopao

10.8

3.7

2.5

1.4

0.63

0.1

blended · 2G

Indya Nivar

9.2

2.6

1.3

0.0

0.00

1.3

2026 only · 1G

Sika Kone

4.6

1.3

0.7

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Isobel Borlase

5.6

0.7

0.3

0.7

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Team total

200.0

82.8

38.4

19.3

6.7

19.9

Team

PNR

ATB3

LC3

RC3

FTA

-0.88

+2.69

+1.07

-0.74

-1.35

-0.95

-0.81

ATL

+0.11

+0.09

+1.77

-1.52

-0.98

-0.76

-1.33