May 15, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Toronto Tempo @ Los Angeles Sparks

Friday, May 15 at 10:00 PM EDT

Total165.1

SpreadLA -24.9

TOR70.1

LA95.0

LA by 24.9 in a 165.1 total

Kelsey Plum is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Projected box scoreZone defenseRole volatility

Projected total165.1

Model spreadLA -24.9

Kelsey Plum PTS19.9

Marina Mabrey 3PM2.87

Nneka Ogwumike REB7.9

Method note: Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.

Kelsey Plum points watch

PTS19.9 pts

Model watch

Kelsey Plum owns the top scoring projection in this game at 19.9 points over 33.4 minutes.
Do not treat this as a bet without a live line; use it as the first prop to compare against books.

Marina Mabrey 3PM watch

3PM2.87 3PM

Structural 3PT fit

Marina Mabrey has the highest made-three projection in the matchup.
This becomes actionable only if the live line leaves room below the projection.

Nneka Ogwumike rebounds watch

REB7.9 reb

Model watch

Nneka Ogwumike leads the game in projected rebounds.
Check lineup news first; early-season frontcourt roles are still volatile.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

LA gives up above-break 3s + rim makes

Los Angeles Sparks shows positive make z-scores in above-break 3s (+2.18), rim makes (+0.91). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

LA suppresses right-corner 3s

Los Angeles Sparks is a negative matchup for right-corner 3s (-1.14). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

The projection lands at 165.1, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.

Side posture

LA grades as the model side by 24.9. Team totals: TOR 70.1 and LA 95.0.

Watch List

Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.

Toronto Tempo (TOR)

200.0 min · 70.1 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Marina Mabrey	G	31.4	18.0	7.3	2.1	2.87	1.9	blended · 1G
Brittney Sykes	G	29.0	14.0	2.6	1.3	0.88	3.8	blended · 2G
Temi Fagbenle	C	22.1	6.9	5.7	2.1	0.32	0.6	blended · 2G
Laura Juskaite	F	21.5	6.5	6.5	0.5	0.50	2.0	2026 only · 2G
Julie Allemand	G	27.9	6.4	4.8	2.1	1.21	0.4	blended · 2G
Kia Nurse	G	13.0	5.1	0.5	0.5	1.05	0.6	blended · 2G
Nyara Sabally	F	12.1	3.8	2.8	0.0	0.06	0.7	blended · 1G
Lexi Held	G	9.3	3.6	0.4	0.0	0.71	0.3	blended · 2G
Kiki Rice	G	13.3	3.2	1.6	1.0	0.00	1.0	2026 only · 2G
Teonni Key	F	10.1	1.3	2.9	1.0	0.00	1.9	2026 only · 2G
Maria Conde	F	9.7	1.3	1.9	0.0	0.00	1.3	2026 only · 1G
Mariella Fasoula	C	0.6	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Team total		200.0	70.1	37.6	10.6	7.6	14.5

No 2025 baseline available: Isabelle Harrison

Los Angeles Sparks (LA)

200.0 min · 95.0 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Kelsey Plum	G	33.4	19.9	3.1	3.8	2.51	5.4	blended · 2G
Nneka Ogwumike	F	30.0	18.3	7.9	4.0	1.73	2.6	blended · 2G
Dearica Hamby	F	29.6	17.2	5.8	1.9	0.26	5.1	blended · 2G
Ariel Atkins	G	27.7	11.6	3.4	3.4	1.10	2.7	blended · 2G
Erica Wheeler	G	23.4	8.8	0.8	2.4	1.58	1.0	blended · 2G
Rae Burrell	G	11.4	4.2	1.2	0.2	0.44	1.1	blended · 2G
Kate Martin	G	9.4	3.5	1.7	0.9	0.78	0.5	2025 baseline
Ta'Niya Latson	G	5.6	2.6	0.6	0.6	0.00	1.8	2026 only · 2G
Sania Feagin	F	3.8	2.4	0.9	0.0	0.00	1.2	2026 only · 2G
Cameron Brink	F	7.2	2.3	2.5	0.0	0.24	0.6	blended · 2G
Chance Gray	G	6.2	1.8	0.9	0.6	0.29	0.6	2026 only · 2G
Emma Cannon	F	2.9	1.8	0.3	0.3	0.59	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Jihyun Park	F	3.5	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Laura Ziegler	F	5.9	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Team total		200.0	95.0	30.3	18.1	9.5	22.6

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone

Team	RA	PNR	MR	ATB3	LC3	RC3	FTA
TOR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
LA	+0.91	-0.73	+0.04	+2.18	+0.66	-1.14	-0.97

Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Marina Mabrey

31.4

18.0

7.3

2.1

2.87

1.9

blended · 1G

Brittney Sykes

29.0

14.0

2.6

1.3

0.88

3.8

blended · 2G

Temi Fagbenle

22.1

6.9

5.7

2.1

0.32

0.6

blended · 2G

Laura Juskaite

21.5

6.5

0.5

0.50

2.0

2026 only · 2G

Julie Allemand

27.9

6.4

4.8

2.1

1.21

0.4

blended · 2G

Kia Nurse

13.0

5.1

0.5

1.05

0.6

blended · 2G

Nyara Sabally

12.1

3.8

2.8

0.0

0.06

0.7

blended · 1G

Lexi Held

9.3

3.6

0.4

0.0

0.71

0.3

blended · 2G

Kiki Rice

13.3

3.2

1.6

1.0

0.00

1.0

2026 only · 2G

Teonni Key

10.1

1.3

2.9

1.0

0.00

1.9

2026 only · 2G

Maria Conde

9.7

1.3

1.9

0.0

0.00

1.3

2026 only · 1G

Mariella Fasoula

0.6

0.0

0.6

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Team total

200.0

70.1

37.6

10.6

7.6

14.5

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Kelsey Plum

33.4

19.9

3.1

3.8

2.51

5.4

blended · 2G

Nneka Ogwumike

30.0

18.3

7.9

4.0

1.73

2.6

blended · 2G

Dearica Hamby

29.6

17.2

5.8

1.9

0.26

5.1

blended · 2G

Ariel Atkins

27.7

11.6

3.4

1.10

2.7

blended · 2G

Erica Wheeler

23.4

8.8

0.8

2.4

1.58

1.0

blended · 2G

Rae Burrell

11.4

4.2

1.2

0.2

0.44

1.1

blended · 2G

Kate Martin

9.4

3.5

1.7

0.9

0.78

0.5

2025 baseline

Ta'Niya Latson

5.6

2.6

0.6

0.00

1.8

2026 only · 2G

Sania Feagin

3.8

2.4

0.9

0.0

0.00

1.2

2026 only · 2G

Cameron Brink

7.2

2.3

2.5

0.0

0.24

0.6

blended · 2G

Chance Gray

6.2

1.8

0.9

0.6

0.29

0.6

2026 only · 2G

Emma Cannon

2.9

1.8

0.3

0.59

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Jihyun Park

3.5

0.6

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Laura Ziegler

5.9

0.0

0.6

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Team total

200.0

95.0

30.3

18.1

9.5

22.6

Team

PNR

ATB3

LC3

RC3

FTA

TOR

0.00

+0.91

-0.73

+0.04

+2.18

+0.66

-1.14

-0.97