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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
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May 15, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Chicago Sky @ Phoenix Mercury

Friday, May 15 at 10:00 PM EDT

Total174.0
SpreadPHX -17.0
CHI78.5
PHX95.5
Out: Monique Akoa Makani (PHX), Valeriane Ayayi (PHX), Shay Ciezki (PHX), Marta Suarez (PHX), Sami Whitcomb (PHX), DiJonai Carrington (CHI), Courtney Vandersloot (CHI)

PHX by 17.0 in a 174.0 total

Jovana Nogic is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Projected box scoreZone defenseRole volatility
Projected total174.0
Model spreadPHX -17.0
Jovana Nogic PTS17.5
Jovana Nogic 3PM4.00
Skylar Diggins REB10.5
Method note: Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.
1

Jovana Nogic points watch

PTS17.5 pts
Model watch
  • Jovana Nogic owns the top scoring projection in this game at 17.5 points over 24.0 minutes.
  • Do not treat this as a bet without a live line; use it as the first prop to compare against books.
2

Jovana Nogic 3PM watch

3PM4.00 3PM
Structural 3PT fit
  • Jovana Nogic has the highest made-three projection in the matchup.
  • This becomes actionable only if the live line leaves room below the projection.
3

Skylar Diggins rebounds watch

REB10.5 reb
Board-volume edge
  • Skylar Diggins leads the game in projected rebounds.
  • Check lineup news first; early-season frontcourt roles are still volatile.
4

Alyssa Thomas assists watch

AST9.8 ast
Usage check
  • Alyssa Thomas has the clearest playmaking projection in the game.
  • Assist lines are role-sensitive; verify starting guards and ball-handler usage before playing it.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

CHI gives up right-corner 3s + above-break 3s

Chicago Sky shows positive make z-scores in right-corner 3s (+2.32), above-break 3s (+0.98). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

CHI suppresses pick-and-roll makes

Chicago Sky is a negative matchup for pick-and-roll makes (-1.63). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

PHX gives up right-corner 3s

Phoenix Mercury shows positive make z-scores in right-corner 3s (+0.59). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

PHX suppresses left-corner 3s

Phoenix Mercury is a negative matchup for left-corner 3s (-0.98). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

The projection lands at 174.0, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.

Side posture

PHX grades as the model side by 17.0. Team totals: CHI 78.5 and PHX 95.5.

Watch List

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.

Chicago Sky (CHI)

200.0 min · 78.5 pts projected
PlayerPosMinPtsRebAst3PMFTASource
Skylar DigginsG31.415.810.56.71.414.8blended · 1G
Rickea JacksonF31.414.36.12.61.512.9blended · 1G
Azura StevensF27.511.65.02.81.522.42025 baseline
Gabriela JaquezG32.010.07.02.01.004.02026 only · 1G
Natasha CloudG28.29.35.12.81.141.82025 baseline
Kamilla CardosoC12.76.47.10.50.011.7blended · 1G
Elizabeth WilliamsC9.63.90.71.30.000.9blended · 1G
Rachel BanhamG11.03.70.01.40.810.7blended · 1G
Jacy SheldonG11.53.51.41.40.530.4blended · 1G
Aicha CoulibalyG2.80.00.90.50.000.02026 only · 1G
Sydney TaylorG1.90.00.00.00.000.02026 only · 1G
Team total200.078.543.822.07.919.6
No 2025 baseline available: Maddy Westbeld

Phoenix Mercury (PHX)

200.0 min · 95.5 pts projected
PlayerPosMinPtsRebAst3PMFTASource
Jovana NogicG24.017.50.52.54.003.52026 only · 2G
Kahleah CopperG27.916.80.42.62.183.7blended · 2G
Alyssa ThomasF31.315.87.49.80.005.0blended · 2G
DeWanna BonnerF24.311.16.72.21.533.1blended · 2G
Natasha MackF27.010.58.51.00.502.02026 only · 2G
Noemie BrochantF16.48.21.90.01.920.52026 only · 2G
Kiana WilliamsG15.98.21.00.52.400.02026 only · 2G
Anneli MaleyF9.64.52.60.30.292.62026 only · 3G
Kyara LinskensC9.11.91.00.50.000.02026 only · 2G
Sha CarterG8.71.01.00.50.000.02026 only · 2G
Peyton WilliamsF5.80.00.01.90.000.02026 only · 1G
Team total200.095.531.021.812.820.4

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone
TeamRAPNRMRATB3LC3RC3FTA
CHI+0.67-1.63+0.90+0.98+0.48+2.32+0.48
PHX-0.59-0.02+0.42-0.27-0.98+0.59+0.30
Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.