May 15, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Washington Mystics @ Indiana Fever

Friday, May 15 at 7:30 PM EDT

Total169.4

SpreadIND -12.8

WSH78.3

IND91.1

Out: Cotie McMahon (WSH)

IND by 12.8 in a 169.4 total

Kelsey Mitchell is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Projected box scoreZone defenseRole volatility

Projected total169.4

Model spreadIND -12.8

Kelsey Mitchell PTS21.2

Kelsey Mitchell 3PM2.35

Kiki Iriafen REB11.6

Method note: Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.

Kelsey Mitchell points watch

PTS21.2 pts

High model volume

Kelsey Mitchell owns the top scoring projection in this game at 21.2 points over 31.4 minutes.
Do not treat this as a bet without a live line; use it as the first prop to compare against books.

Kelsey Mitchell 3PM watch

3PM2.35 3PM

Model watch

Kelsey Mitchell has the highest made-three projection in the matchup.
This becomes actionable only if the live line leaves room below the projection.

Kiki Iriafen rebounds watch

REB11.6 reb

Board-volume edge

Kiki Iriafen leads the game in projected rebounds.
Check lineup news first; early-season frontcourt roles are still volatile.

Caitlin Clark assists watch

AST7.0 ast

Usage check

Caitlin Clark has the clearest playmaking projection in the game.
Assist lines are role-sensitive; verify starting guards and ball-handler usage before playing it.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

WSH gives up right-corner 3s + mid-range makes

Washington Mystics shows positive make z-scores in right-corner 3s (+1.17), mid-range makes (+0.90). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

IND gives up rim makes + free-throw volume

Indiana Fever shows positive make z-scores in rim makes (+0.73), free-throw volume (+0.69). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

IND suppresses right-corner 3s

Indiana Fever is a negative matchup for right-corner 3s (-0.95). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

The projection lands at 169.4, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.

Side posture

IND grades as the model side by 12.8. Team totals: WSH 78.3 and IND 91.1.

Watch List

Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.

Washington Mystics (WSH)

200.0 min · 78.3 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Sonia Citron	G	31.4	15.3	3.2	1.8	1.29	4.0	blended · 3G
Shakira Austin	C	24.5	14.9	8.4	2.4	0.03	4.9	blended · 2G
Kiki Iriafen	F	26.1	14.8	11.6	2.2	0.13	4.7	blended · 3G
Lauren Betts	C	12.5	5.4	2.5	1.1	0.00	1.3	2026 only · 3G
Georgia Amoore	G	12.9	4.7	1.1	2.7	1.14	0.0	2026 only · 3G
Cassandre Prosper	G	22.0	4.3	2.3	0.7	0.00	0.7	2026 only · 3G
Michaela Onyenwere	F	11.0	3.9	2.0	1.1	0.29	0.9	2025 baseline
Alex Wilson	G	20.5	3.5	3.0	1.5	0.50	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Darianna Littlepage-Buggs	G	9.4	3.3	1.3	0.7	0.67	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Angela Dugalic	F	9.4	3.1	2.2	0.5	0.47	0.5	2026 only · 3G
Lucy Olsen	G	6.9	3.1	0.5	0.9	0.20	0.9	2026 only · 3G
Rori Harmon	G	13.4	2.0	1.1	2.2	0.20	0.5	2026 only · 3G
Team total		200.0	78.3	39.2	17.8	4.9	18.4

No 2025 baseline available: Alicia Florez Getino

Indiana Fever (IND)

200.0 min · 91.1 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Kelsey Mitchell	G	31.4	21.2	2.9	3.8	2.35	4.7	blended · 1G
Caitlin Clark	G	31.0	16.5	5.0	7.0	2.05	4.2	blended · 1G
Aliyah Boston	C	29.7	15.9	4.6	3.4	0.23	3.6	blended · 1G
Sophie Cunningham	G	25.3	7.8	3.9	2.9	1.53	1.7	blended · 1G
Makayla Timpson	F	12.3	7.1	1.3	0.6	0.00	1.3	2026 only · 1G
Lexie Hull	G	25.8	6.2	1.7	0.0	1.05	0.8	blended · 1G
Myisha Hines-Allen	F	14.2	4.7	4.1	1.4	0.21	1.4	blended · 1G
Monique Billings	F	11.5	4.6	2.1	1.2	0.24	1.4	2025 baseline
Damiris Dantas	C	8.4	4.5	0.6	0.6	0.65	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Raven Johnson	G	7.8	2.6	1.3	1.3	0.00	1.3	2026 only · 1G
Tyasha Harris	G	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Team total		200.0	91.1	27.5	22.2	8.3	20.4

No 2025 baseline available: Justine Pissott, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone

Team	RA	PNR	MR	ATB3	LC3	RC3	FTA
WSH	-0.07	-0.42	+0.90	-0.32	-0.25	+1.17	+0.27
IND	+0.73	+0.15	-0.55	-0.94	-0.62	-0.95	+0.69

Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Sonia Citron

31.4

15.3

3.2

1.8

1.29

4.0

blended · 3G

Shakira Austin

24.5

14.9

8.4

2.4

0.03

4.9

blended · 2G

Kiki Iriafen

26.1

14.8

11.6

2.2

0.13

4.7

blended · 3G

Lauren Betts

12.5

5.4

2.5

1.1

0.00

1.3

2026 only · 3G

Georgia Amoore

12.9

4.7

1.1

2.7

1.14

0.0

2026 only · 3G

Cassandre Prosper

22.0

4.3

2.3

0.7

0.00

0.7

2026 only · 3G

Michaela Onyenwere

11.0

3.9

2.0

1.1

0.29

0.9

2025 baseline

Alex Wilson

20.5

3.5

3.0

1.5

0.50

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Darianna Littlepage-Buggs

9.4

3.3

1.3

0.7

0.67

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Angela Dugalic

9.4

3.1

2.2

0.5

0.47

0.5

2026 only · 3G

Lucy Olsen

6.9

3.1

0.5

0.9

0.20

0.9

2026 only · 3G

Rori Harmon

13.4

2.0

1.1

2.2

0.20

0.5

2026 only · 3G

Team total

200.0

78.3

39.2

17.8

4.9

18.4

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Kelsey Mitchell

31.4

21.2

2.9

3.8

2.35

4.7

blended · 1G

Caitlin Clark

31.0

16.5

5.0

7.0

2.05

4.2

blended · 1G

Aliyah Boston

29.7

15.9

4.6

3.4

0.23

3.6

blended · 1G

Sophie Cunningham

25.3

7.8

3.9

2.9

1.53

1.7

blended · 1G

Makayla Timpson

12.3

7.1

1.3

0.6

0.00

1.3

2026 only · 1G

Lexie Hull

25.8

6.2

1.7

0.0

1.05

0.8

blended · 1G

Myisha Hines-Allen

14.2

4.7

4.1

1.4

0.21

1.4

blended · 1G

Monique Billings

11.5

4.6

2.1

1.2

0.24

1.4

2025 baseline

Damiris Dantas

8.4

4.5

0.6

0.65

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Raven Johnson

7.8

2.6

1.3

0.00

1.3

2026 only · 1G

Tyasha Harris

2.6

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Team total

200.0

91.1

27.5

22.2

8.3

20.4

Team

PNR

ATB3

LC3

RC3

FTA

WSH

-0.07

-0.42

+0.90

-0.32

-0.25

+1.17

+0.27

IND

+0.73

+0.15

-0.55

-0.94

-0.62

-0.95

+0.69