May 14, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Minnesota Lynx @ Dallas Wings

Thursday, May 14 at 8:00 PM EDT

Total170.4

SpreadMIN -13.2

MIN91.8

DAL78.6

Out: Napheesa Collier (MIN), Dorka Juhasz (MIN)

MIN by 13.2 in a 170.4 total

Kayla McBride is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Projected box scoreZone defenseRole volatility

Projected total170.4

Model spreadMIN -13.2

Kayla McBride PTS17.6

Kayla McBride 3PM2.91

Alanna Smith REB7.6

Method note: Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.

Kayla McBride points watch

PTS17.6 pts

Model watch

Kayla McBride owns the top scoring projection in this game at 17.6 points over 30.4 minutes.
Do not treat this as a bet without a live line; use it as the first prop to compare against books.

Kayla McBride 3PM watch

3PM2.91 3PM

Structural 3PT fit

Kayla McBride has the highest made-three projection in the matchup.
This becomes actionable only if the live line leaves room below the projection.

Alanna Smith rebounds watch

REB7.6 reb

Model watch

Alanna Smith leads the game in projected rebounds.
Check lineup news first; early-season frontcourt roles are still volatile.

Paige Bueckers assists watch

AST7.7 ast

Usage check

Paige Bueckers has the clearest playmaking projection in the game.
Assist lines are role-sensitive; verify starting guards and ball-handler usage before playing it.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

MIN gives up left-corner 3s

Minnesota Lynx shows positive make z-scores in left-corner 3s (+2.31). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

MIN suppresses free-throw volume

Minnesota Lynx is a negative matchup for free-throw volume (-1.52). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

DAL gives up free-throw volume + left-corner 3s

Dallas Wings shows positive make z-scores in free-throw volume (+1.93), left-corner 3s (+1.57). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

DAL suppresses mid-range makes

Dallas Wings is a negative matchup for mid-range makes (-0.93). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

The projection lands at 170.4, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.

Side posture

MIN grades as the model side by 13.2. Team totals: MIN 91.8 and DAL 78.6.

Watch List

Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.

Minnesota Lynx (MIN)

200.0 min · 91.8 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Kayla McBride	G	30.4	17.6	2.8	1.7	2.91	4.1	blended · 2G
Olivia Miles	G	31.0	17.0	4.5	5.0	0.50	6.5	2026 only · 2G
Courtney Williams	G	27.8	12.6	6.2	6.8	1.34	1.8	blended · 2G
Natasha Howard	F	22.6	10.4	4.8	2.7	0.13	4.4	blended · 2G
Emma Cechova	F	15.9	10.4	3.3	0.0	0.00	5.2	2026 only · 2G
Nia Coffey	F	24.0	6.0	3.5	0.5	1.00	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Eliska Hamzova	G	13.3	5.2	1.5	0.7	0.74	2.2	2026 only · 1G
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu	F	7.8	5.2	2.2	0.0	0.00	1.5	2026 only · 2G
Maya Caldwell	G	12.7	4.4	3.9	1.1	0.80	0.5	blended · 2G
Antonia Delaere	F	11.5	1.5	0.4	1.1	0.00	0.7	2026 only · 2G
Emese Hof	C	3.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Team total		200.0	91.8	33.1	19.6	7.4	26.9

Dallas Wings (DAL)

200.0 min · 78.6 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Paige Bueckers	G	32.0	15.8	4.2	7.7	0.94	2.2	blended · 2G
Arike Ogunbowale	G	32.8	13.8	1.1	5.7	1.67	2.1	blended · 1G
Maddy Siegrist	F	25.6	11.1	5.1	1.3	0.81	1.1	blended · 2G
Odyssey Sims	G	26.6	9.5	1.3	2.5	0.97	1.2	blended · 2G
Alanna Smith	F	24.4	9.3	7.6	2.3	1.19	0.8	blended · 2G
Aziaha James	G	8.9	4.1	1.6	1.1	0.60	0.4	blended · 2G
Jessica Shepard	F	11.0	3.8	3.1	2.4	0.00	0.7	blended · 2G
Azzi Fudd	G	9.9	3.8	0.3	0.3	0.51	1.0	2026 only · 2G
JJ Quinerly	G	7.8	2.9	2.1	2.1	0.31	0.4	blended · 1G
Alysha Clark	F	5.6	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.25	0.8	2026 only · 2G
Li Yueru	C	7.3	2.2	0.8	0.0	0.20	0.4	blended · 2G
Dulcy Fankam Mendjiadeu	F	5.1	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Costanza Verona	G	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Awak Kuier	F	1.0	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Team total		200.0	78.6	29.0	26.2	7.4	11.1

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone

Team	RA	PNR	MR	ATB3	LC3	RC3	FTA
MIN	-0.04	-0.81	-0.23	-0.62	+2.31	-0.56	-1.52
DAL	-0.12	+0.32	-0.93	+1.23	+1.57	+0.78	+1.93

Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Kayla McBride

30.4

17.6

2.8

1.7

2.91

4.1

blended · 2G

Olivia Miles

31.0

17.0

4.5

5.0

0.50

6.5

2026 only · 2G

Courtney Williams

27.8

12.6

6.2

6.8

1.34

1.8

blended · 2G

Natasha Howard

22.6

10.4

4.8

2.7

0.13

4.4

blended · 2G

Emma Cechova

15.9

10.4

3.3

0.0

0.00

5.2

2026 only · 2G

Nia Coffey

24.0

6.0

3.5

0.5

1.00

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Eliska Hamzova

13.3

5.2

1.5

0.7

0.74

2.2

2026 only · 1G

Anastasiia Olairi Kosu

7.8

5.2

2.2

0.0

0.00

1.5

2026 only · 2G

Maya Caldwell

12.7

4.4

3.9

1.1

0.80

0.5

blended · 2G

Antonia Delaere

11.5

1.5

0.4

1.1

0.00

0.7

2026 only · 2G

Emese Hof

3.0

1.5

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Team total

200.0

91.8

33.1

19.6

7.4

26.9

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Paige Bueckers

32.0

15.8

4.2

7.7

0.94

2.2

blended · 2G

Arike Ogunbowale

32.8

13.8

1.1

5.7

1.67

2.1

blended · 1G

Maddy Siegrist

25.6

11.1

5.1

1.3

0.81

1.1

blended · 2G

Odyssey Sims

26.6

9.5

1.3

2.5

0.97

1.2

blended · 2G

Alanna Smith

24.4

9.3

7.6

2.3

1.19

0.8

blended · 2G

Aziaha James

8.9

4.1

1.6

1.1

0.60

0.4

blended · 2G

Jessica Shepard

11.0

3.8

3.1

2.4

0.00

0.7

blended · 2G

Azzi Fudd

9.9

3.8

0.3

0.51

1.0

2026 only · 2G

JJ Quinerly

7.8

2.9

2.1

0.31

0.4

blended · 1G

Alysha Clark

5.6

2.3

0.8

0.3

0.25

0.8

2026 only · 2G

Li Yueru

7.3

2.2

0.8

0.0

0.20

0.4

blended · 2G

Dulcy Fankam Mendjiadeu

5.1

0.0

0.5

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Costanza Verona

2.0

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Awak Kuier

1.0

0.0

0.5

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Team total

200.0

78.6

29.0

26.2

7.4

11.1

Team

PNR

ATB3

LC3

RC3

FTA

MIN

-0.04

-0.81

-0.23

-0.62

+2.31

-0.56

-1.52

DAL

-0.12

+0.32

-0.93

+1.23

+1.57

+0.78

+1.93