May 13, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Indiana Fever @ Los Angeles Sparks

Wednesday, May 13 at 10:30 PM EDT

Total198.2

SpreadIND -6.0

IND102.1

LA96.1

IND by 6.0 in a 198.2 total

Kelsey Mitchell is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Projected box scoreZone defenseRole volatility

Projected total198.2

Model spreadIND -6.0

Kelsey Mitchell PTS24.5

Kelsey Mitchell 3PM3.57

Nneka Ogwumike REB7.9

Method note: Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.

Kelsey Mitchell points watch

PTS24.5 pts

High model volume

Kelsey Mitchell owns the top scoring projection in this game at 24.5 points over 31.4 minutes.
Do not treat this as a bet without a live line; use it as the first prop to compare against books.

Kelsey Mitchell 3PM watch

3PM3.57 3PM

Structural 3PT fit

Kelsey Mitchell has the highest made-three projection in the matchup.
This becomes actionable only if the live line leaves room below the projection.

Nneka Ogwumike rebounds watch

REB7.9 reb

Model watch

Nneka Ogwumike leads the game in projected rebounds.
Check lineup news first; early-season frontcourt roles are still volatile.

Caitlin Clark assists watch

AST7.0 ast

Usage check

Caitlin Clark has the clearest playmaking projection in the game.
Assist lines are role-sensitive; verify starting guards and ball-handler usage before playing it.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

IND gives up rim makes + free-throw volume

Indiana Fever shows positive make z-scores in rim makes (+0.73), free-throw volume (+0.69). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

IND suppresses right-corner 3s

Indiana Fever is a negative matchup for right-corner 3s (-0.95). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

LA gives up above-break 3s + rim makes

Los Angeles Sparks shows positive make z-scores in above-break 3s (+2.18), rim makes (+0.91). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

LA suppresses right-corner 3s

Los Angeles Sparks is a negative matchup for right-corner 3s (-1.14). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

The projection lands at 198.2, a pace/efficiency setup that starts as an over-screen before prices are considered.

Side posture

IND grades as the model side by 6.0. Team totals: IND 102.1 and LA 96.1.

Watch List

Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.

Indiana Fever (IND)

200.0 min · 102.1 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Kelsey Mitchell	G	31.4	24.5	2.9	3.8	3.57	3.1	blended · 1G
Caitlin Clark	G	31.0	19.5	5.0	7.0	3.28	2.7	blended · 1G
Aliyah Boston	C	29.7	16.4	4.6	3.4	0.30	2.3	blended · 1G
Sophie Cunningham	G	25.3	10.4	3.9	2.9	2.40	1.1	blended · 1G
Lexie Hull	G	25.8	7.3	1.7	0.0	1.45	0.6	blended · 1G
Makayla Timpson	F	12.3	7.1	1.3	0.6	0.00	1.3	2026 only · 1G
Myisha Hines-Allen	F	14.2	5.1	4.1	1.4	0.34	1.0	blended · 1G
Monique Billings	F	11.5	4.7	2.1	1.2	0.30	0.9	2025 baseline
Damiris Dantas	C	8.4	4.5	0.6	0.6	0.65	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Raven Johnson	G	7.8	2.6	1.3	1.3	0.00	1.3	2026 only · 1G
Tyasha Harris	G	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Team total		200.0	102.1	27.5	22.2	12.3	14.3

No 2025 baseline available: Justine Pissott, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough

Los Angeles Sparks (LA)

200.0 min · 96.1 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Kelsey Plum	G	33.4	20.0	3.1	3.8	2.10	6.5	blended · 2G
Dearica Hamby	F	29.6	19.2	5.8	1.9	0.20	6.1	blended · 2G
Nneka Ogwumike	F	30.0	18.4	7.9	4.0	1.47	3.1	blended · 2G
Ariel Atkins	G	27.7	11.2	3.4	3.4	0.87	3.2	blended · 2G
Erica Wheeler	G	23.4	8.2	0.8	2.4	1.30	1.3	blended · 2G
Rae Burrell	G	11.4	4.3	1.2	0.2	0.35	1.2	blended · 2G
Kate Martin	G	9.4	3.2	1.7	0.9	0.59	0.6	2025 baseline
Ta'Niya Latson	G	5.6	2.6	0.6	0.6	0.00	1.8	2026 only · 2G
Cameron Brink	F	7.2	2.4	2.5	0.0	0.18	0.8	blended · 2G
Sania Feagin	F	3.8	2.4	0.9	0.0	0.00	1.2	2026 only · 2G
Chance Gray	G	6.2	1.8	0.9	0.6	0.29	0.6	2026 only · 2G
Emma Cannon	F	2.9	1.8	0.3	0.3	0.59	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Jihyun Park	F	3.5	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Laura Ziegler	F	5.9	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Team total		200.0	96.1	30.3	18.1	7.9	26.4

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone

Team	RA	PNR	MR	ATB3	LC3	RC3	FTA
IND	+0.73	+0.15	-0.55	-0.94	-0.62	-0.95	+0.69
LA	+0.91	-0.73	+0.04	+2.18	+0.66	-1.14	-0.97

Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Kelsey Mitchell

31.4

24.5

2.9

3.8

3.57

3.1

blended · 1G

Caitlin Clark

31.0

19.5

5.0

7.0

3.28

2.7

blended · 1G

Aliyah Boston

29.7

16.4

4.6

3.4

0.30

2.3

blended · 1G

Sophie Cunningham

25.3

10.4

3.9

2.9

2.40

1.1

blended · 1G

Lexie Hull

25.8

7.3

1.7

0.0

1.45

0.6

blended · 1G

Makayla Timpson

12.3

7.1

1.3

0.6

0.00

1.3

2026 only · 1G

Myisha Hines-Allen

14.2

5.1

4.1

1.4

0.34

1.0

blended · 1G

Monique Billings

11.5

4.7

2.1

1.2

0.30

0.9

2025 baseline

Damiris Dantas

8.4

4.5

0.6

0.65

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Raven Johnson

7.8

2.6

1.3

0.00

1.3

2026 only · 1G

Tyasha Harris

2.6

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Team total

200.0

102.1

27.5

22.2

12.3

14.3

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Kelsey Plum

33.4

20.0

3.1

3.8

2.10

6.5

blended · 2G

Dearica Hamby

29.6

19.2

5.8

1.9

0.20

6.1

blended · 2G

Nneka Ogwumike

30.0

18.4

7.9

4.0

1.47

3.1

blended · 2G

Ariel Atkins

27.7

11.2

3.4

0.87

3.2

blended · 2G

Erica Wheeler

23.4

8.2

0.8

2.4

1.30

1.3

blended · 2G

Rae Burrell

11.4

4.3

1.2

0.2

0.35

1.2

blended · 2G

Kate Martin

9.4

3.2

1.7

0.9

0.59

0.6

2025 baseline

Ta'Niya Latson

5.6

2.6

0.6

0.00

1.8

2026 only · 2G

Cameron Brink

7.2

2.4

2.5

0.0

0.18

0.8

blended · 2G

Sania Feagin

3.8

2.4

0.9

0.0

0.00

1.2

2026 only · 2G

Chance Gray

6.2

1.8

0.9

0.6

0.29

0.6

2026 only · 2G

Emma Cannon

2.9

1.8

0.3

0.59

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Jihyun Park

3.5

0.6

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Laura Ziegler

5.9

0.0

0.6

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Team total

200.0

96.1

30.3

18.1

7.9

26.4

Team

PNR

ATB3

LC3

RC3

FTA

IND

+0.73

+0.15

-0.55

-0.94

-0.62

-0.95

+0.69

+0.91

-0.73

+0.04

+2.18

+0.66

-1.14

-0.97