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Independent basketball projections and scouting notes. Outputs are directional, not calibrated betting advice.
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May 13, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Chicago Sky @ Golden State Valkyries

Wednesday, May 13 at 10:00 PM EDT

Total157.6
SpreadGS -13.4
CHI72.1
GS85.5
Out: Tiffany Hayes (GS), Juste Jocyte (GS), Iliana Rupert (GS), Cecilia Zandalasini (GS), DiJonai Carrington (CHI), Courtney Vandersloot (CHI)

GS by 13.4 in a 157.6 total

Kayla Thornton is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Projected box scoreZone defenseRole volatility
Projected total157.6
Model spreadGS -13.4
Kayla Thornton PTS15.2
Janelle Salaun 3PM2.64
Skylar Diggins REB10.5
Method note: Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.
1

Kayla Thornton points watch

PTS15.2 pts
Model watch
  • Kayla Thornton owns the top scoring projection in this game at 15.2 points over 30.2 minutes.
  • Do not treat this as a bet without a live line; use it as the first prop to compare against books.
2

Janelle Salaun 3PM watch

3PM2.64 3PM
Structural 3PT fit
  • Janelle Salaun has the highest made-three projection in the matchup.
  • This becomes actionable only if the live line leaves room below the projection.
3

Skylar Diggins rebounds watch

REB10.5 reb
Board-volume edge
  • Skylar Diggins leads the game in projected rebounds.
  • Check lineup news first; early-season frontcourt roles are still volatile.
4

Veronica Burton assists watch

AST8.5 ast
Usage check
  • Veronica Burton has the clearest playmaking projection in the game.
  • Assist lines are role-sensitive; verify starting guards and ball-handler usage before playing it.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

CHI gives up right-corner 3s + above-break 3s

Chicago Sky shows positive make z-scores in right-corner 3s (+2.32), above-break 3s (+0.98). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

CHI suppresses pick-and-roll makes

Chicago Sky is a negative matchup for pick-and-roll makes (-1.63). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

GS gives up pick-and-roll makes + above-break 3s

Golden State Valkyries shows positive make z-scores in pick-and-roll makes (+0.88), above-break 3s (+0.68). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

GS suppresses rim makes

Golden State Valkyries is a negative matchup for rim makes (-2.72). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

The projection lands at 157.6, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.

Side posture

GS grades as the model side by 13.4. Team totals: CHI 72.1 and GS 85.5.

Watch List

  • Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
  • Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
  • Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

  • Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
  • Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
  • These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.

Chicago Sky (CHI)

200.0 min · 72.1 pts projected
PlayerPosMinPtsRebAst3PMFTASource
Skylar DigginsG31.415.110.56.71.704.3blended · 1G
Rickea JacksonF31.413.26.12.61.892.5blended · 1G
Azura StevensF27.510.25.02.81.862.12025 baseline
Gabriela JaquezG32.010.07.02.01.004.02026 only · 1G
Natasha CloudG28.28.65.12.81.421.62025 baseline
Kamilla CardosoC12.74.67.10.50.011.5blended · 1G
Rachel BanhamG11.04.10.01.40.990.6blended · 1G
Jacy SheldonG11.53.31.41.40.630.4blended · 1G
Elizabeth WilliamsC9.63.00.71.30.000.8blended · 1G
Aicha CoulibalyG2.80.00.90.50.000.02026 only · 1G
Sydney TaylorG1.90.00.00.00.000.02026 only · 1G
Team total200.072.143.822.09.517.8
No 2025 baseline available: Maddy Westbeld

Golden State Valkyries (GS)

200.0 min · 85.5 pts projected
PlayerPosMinPtsRebAst3PMFTASource
Kayla ThorntonF30.215.25.40.52.414.3blended · 2G
Janelle SalaunF26.914.62.51.52.642.0blended · 2G
Veronica BurtonG29.813.32.48.51.695.0blended · 2G
Gabby WilliamsF33.513.06.13.91.661.9blended · 2G
Kaitlyn ChenG18.011.52.92.91.441.42026 only · 2G
Laeticia AmihereF18.07.64.62.70.143.3blended · 2G
Kaila CharlesG19.16.93.81.10.951.7blended · 2G
Kiah StokesC18.03.43.41.50.001.02026 only · 2G
Miela SowahG4.90.00.00.00.000.02026 only · 1G
Ndjakalenga MwenentandaG1.60.00.00.00.000.02026 only · 1G
Team total200.085.531.122.610.920.6
No 2025 baseline available: Ashten Prechtel

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone
TeamRAPNRMRATB3LC3RC3FTA
CHI+0.67-1.63+0.90+0.98+0.48+2.32+0.48
GS-2.72+0.88-0.55+0.68+0.11+0.21-0.09
Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.