May 13, 2026 · Projected Box Score

Seattle Storm @ Toronto Tempo

Wednesday, May 13 at 7:00 PM EDT

Total139.9

SpreadSEA -14.7

SEA77.3

TOR62.6

Out: Awa Fam (SEA), Ezi Magbegor (SEA), Katie Lou Samuelson (SEA)

SEA by 14.7 in a 139.9 total

Marina Mabrey is the first player-prop checkpoint, while the defense profile points to the strongest shot-zone funnels below.

Projected box scoreZone defenseRole volatility

Projected total139.9

Model spreadSEA -14.7

Marina Mabrey PTS14.6

Lexie Brown 3PM2.50

Marina Mabrey REB7.3

Method note: Generated from the weekly projection payload: blended baselines, 2026 form, injuries, and zone-defense profiles. Compare every lean to live market lines before treating it as actionable.

Headline Plays

Market-aware where live lines exist; otherwise model watches.

Marina Mabrey points watch

PTS14.6 pts

Model watch

Marina Mabrey owns the top scoring projection in this game at 14.6 points over 31.4 minutes.
Do not treat this as a bet without a live line; use it as the first prop to compare against books.

Lexie Brown 3PM watch

3PM2.50 3PM

Structural 3PT fit

Lexie Brown has the highest made-three projection in the matchup.
This becomes actionable only if the live line leaves room below the projection.

Jade Melbourne assists watch

AST5.1 ast

Usage check

Jade Melbourne has the clearest playmaking projection in the game.
Assist lines are role-sensitive; verify starting guards and ball-handler usage before playing it.

Matchup Levers

The NCAA dossier pattern: explain what the number means.

SEA gives up rim makes

Seattle Storm shows positive make z-scores in rim makes (+0.76). Prioritize opposing players whose projections are already strong in those markets.

SEA suppresses mid-range makes

Seattle Storm is a negative matchup for mid-range makes (-1.36). Treat overs attached to that channel as price-sensitive.

Game Script

How to read the projected box score before checking prices.

Total posture

The projection lands at 139.9, so this is more about player-specific funnels than a blind game-total over.

Side posture

SEA grades as the model side by 14.7. Team totals: SEA 77.3 and TOR 62.6.

Watch List

Refresh ESPN injury status before tip.
Compare player lines against the projection, not against season averages alone.
Downgrade rookies and traded players when the minutes projection is not confirmed by the starting lineup.

Caveats

Early-season samples are tiny; role assumptions matter as much as matchup math.
Defense profiles still include expansion priors and should be refit after each team has a larger 2026 sample.
These are directional model reads, not calibrated betting recommendations.

Seattle Storm (SEA)

200.0 min · 77.3 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Flau'jae Johnson	G	29.0	14.0	4.0	1.5	2.00	6.5	2026 only · 2G
Zia Cooke	G	18.0	9.8	4.1	1.0	1.54	3.6	2026 only · 2G
Dominique Malonga	C	18.0	9.7	5.5	0.0	0.10	1.5	blended · 2G
Natisha Hiedeman	G	20.0	9.1	2.9	2.5	0.89	1.6	blended · 2G
Lexie Brown	G	21.5	8.5	1.0	2.0	2.50	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Jade Melbourne	G	22.7	7.8	1.7	5.1	0.81	1.6	blended · 2G
Grace VanSlooten	F	10.8	6.3	1.3	0.0	1.27	1.3	2026 only · 2G
Stefanie Dolson	C	24.0	6.0	4.5	1.5	0.50	3.0	2026 only · 2G
Mackenzie Holmes	F	18.0	3.7	6.4	1.1	0.53	0.0	2026 only · 2G
Jordan Horston	F	18.0	2.4	4.2	0.6	0.00	1.2	2026 only · 2G
Team total		200.0	77.3	35.6	15.3	10.1	20.3

No 2025 baseline available: Taina Mair

Toronto Tempo (TOR)

200.0 min · 62.6 pts projected

Player	Pos	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	3PM	FTA	Source
Marina Mabrey	G	31.4	14.6	7.3	2.1	1.60	2.6	blended · 1G
Brittney Sykes	G	29.0	13.7	2.6	1.3	0.47	5.3	blended · 2G
Temi Fagbenle	C	22.1	6.6	5.7	2.1	0.18	0.9	blended · 2G
Laura Juskaite	F	21.5	6.5	6.5	0.5	0.50	2.0	2026 only · 2G
Julie Allemand	G	27.9	4.9	4.8	2.1	0.71	0.6	blended · 2G
Kia Nurse	G	13.0	3.9	0.5	0.5	0.60	0.8	blended · 2G
Nyara Sabally	F	12.1	3.9	2.8	0.0	0.03	1.0	blended · 1G
Kiki Rice	G	13.3	3.2	1.6	1.0	0.00	1.0	2026 only · 2G
Lexi Held	G	9.3	2.7	0.4	0.0	0.41	0.5	blended · 2G
Teonni Key	F	10.1	1.3	2.9	1.0	0.00	1.9	2026 only · 2G
Maria Conde	F	9.7	1.3	1.9	0.0	0.00	1.3	2026 only · 1G
Mariella Fasoula	C	0.6	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.00	0.0	2026 only · 1G
Team total		200.0	62.6	37.6	10.6	4.5	17.9

No 2025 baseline available: Isabelle Harrison

Defense z-scores (makes allowed)

Positive = team allows above-average makes in that zone

Team	RA	PNR	MR	ATB3	LC3	RC3	FTA
SEA	+0.76	+0.18	-1.36	-0.99	-0.44	-0.76	+0.01
TOR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Method: 2025 player baselines blended with 2026 in-season form (1-3 games), adjusted by opponent's per-zone defense z-scores. Minutes normalized to exactly 200 per team — starters capped at 36, bench at 18, per-minute rates preserved. Rookies and new-to-WNBA players carry a "no 2025 baseline" tag — their lines need market priors before they're calibrated.

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Flau'jae Johnson

29.0

14.0

4.0

1.5

2.00

6.5

2026 only · 2G

Zia Cooke

18.0

9.8

4.1

1.0

1.54

3.6

2026 only · 2G

Dominique Malonga

18.0

9.7

5.5

0.0

0.10

1.5

blended · 2G

Natisha Hiedeman

20.0

9.1

2.9

2.5

0.89

1.6

blended · 2G

Lexie Brown

21.5

8.5

1.0

2.0

2.50

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Jade Melbourne

22.7

7.8

1.7

5.1

0.81

1.6

blended · 2G

Grace VanSlooten

10.8

6.3

1.3

0.0

1.27

1.3

2026 only · 2G

Stefanie Dolson

24.0

6.0

4.5

1.5

0.50

3.0

2026 only · 2G

Mackenzie Holmes

18.0

3.7

6.4

1.1

0.53

0.0

2026 only · 2G

Jordan Horston

18.0

2.4

4.2

0.6

0.00

1.2

2026 only · 2G

Team total

200.0

77.3

35.6

15.3

10.1

20.3

Player

Pos

Min

Pts

Reb

Ast

3PM

FTA

Source

Marina Mabrey

31.4

14.6

7.3

2.1

1.60

2.6

blended · 1G

Brittney Sykes

29.0

13.7

2.6

1.3

0.47

5.3

blended · 2G

Temi Fagbenle

22.1

6.6

5.7

2.1

0.18

0.9

blended · 2G

Laura Juskaite

21.5

6.5

0.5

0.50

2.0

2026 only · 2G

Julie Allemand

27.9

4.9

4.8

2.1

0.71

0.6

blended · 2G

Kia Nurse

13.0

3.9

0.5

0.60

0.8

blended · 2G

Nyara Sabally

12.1

3.9

2.8

0.0

0.03

1.0

blended · 1G

Kiki Rice

13.3

3.2

1.6

1.0

0.00

1.0

2026 only · 2G

Lexi Held

9.3

2.7

0.4

0.0

0.41

0.5

blended · 2G

Teonni Key

10.1

1.3

2.9

1.0

0.00

1.9

2026 only · 2G

Maria Conde

9.7

1.3

1.9

0.0

0.00

1.3

2026 only · 1G

Mariella Fasoula

0.6

0.0

0.6

0.0

0.00

0.0

2026 only · 1G

Team total

200.0

62.6

37.6

10.6

4.5

17.9

Team

PNR

ATB3

LC3

RC3

FTA

SEA

+0.76

+0.18

-1.36

-0.99

-0.44

-0.76

+0.01

TOR

0.00